My research interests focus around the detection and attribution of climate change and of its effects on human and natural systems. Essentially this means trying to figure out whether and by how much human activities are causing various aspects of the climate system to change, and trying to figure out whether and by how much those changes in the climate system are affecting human and natural systems.
My recent focus has been on the attribution of changes in the chances of extreme weather events, such as extremely hot seasons or wet seasons. One aspect of this is the Weather Risk Attribution Forecast, the world's only real-time service to examine whether and how greenhouse gas emissions have contributed to our weather. A particular goal is to focus on the attribution of the risk of damage. It is not entirely clear how this can be done systematically, but we are testing various options.
- The Calibrated and Systematic Characterization, Attribution, and Detection of Extremes (CASCADE) Project
- The Weather Risk Attribution Forecast
- The International CLIVAR Climate of the 20th Century Plus Detection and Attribution Project (C20C+ D&A)
- The International CLIVAR C20C+ Half a degree Additional warming, Projections, Prognosis and Impacts (HAPPI)
- The Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP)
- The Future Resilience for African Cities and Lands Project (FRACTAL)
- Centre for Resource Management and Environmental Studies, University of the West Indies
- Climate Dynamics Group and climateprediction.net, University of Oxford
- Climate Modelling Group, University of Victoria
- Climate Systems Analysis Group, University of Cape Town
- Spatial Ecology and Epidemiology Group and Trypanosomaiasis and Land-use in Africa Group, University of Oxford
- Tyndall Centre Oxford, University of Oxford